000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 2N MOVING W 10 KT.  WAVE HAS LITTLE 
IF ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION EVEN THOUGH IT DOES NOT HAVE 
ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.  DRY AIR MASS SWEEPING BEHIND 
CARIBBEAN COLD FRONT HAS ENTRAINED LOW LEVEL INFLOW ACROSS GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO AND DRAINED MOISTURE OUT OF WAVE UPLIFT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 2N TO 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT HAS 
DEEP CONVECTION LINED ALONG ITCZ AXIS.  AXIS NOW W OF COOL DRY N 
WIND ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IS NOW UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER 
CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  GFS SOLUTION INCLUDES 1008 
MB LOW PRES FORMING NEAR 107W AND DRIFTING W THEREAFTER.  GIVEN
MOISTURE LEVEL...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND WAVE RESILIENCE 
IT IS VERY LIKELY MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  NOGAPS 18Z RUN IS 
EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS...BUT SLOWER IN TIMING. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG  5N77W  10N95W  8N120W  8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 8N E OF 80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM BETWEEN 114W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER N PART OF E PAC AS MID/UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED AT 11N130W DIVIDES UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM 
32N115W TO 20N140W AND FROM 32N106W TO 10N120W.  UPPER FLOW 
BECOMES ZONAL BETWEEN TROUGHS.  TROUGH BRINGS DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE 
INTO ITCZ BELT AS MOIST OUTFLOW EXTENDS NE TOWARDS MOUTH OF GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA.  ITCZ HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT FROM 100W TO 115W.

FARTHER E...MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN FORCES AIRFLOW 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO E PAC FORECAST WATERS.  

AT THE SURFACE...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS ARE BELOW GALE FORCE 
BUT STILL VERY STRONG...NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITHIN 48 HRS. 
TRADES CONTINUE FROM 10N TO 20 N W OF 120W AS 1026 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTER REMAINS N OF AREA...ALSO INCREASING FLOW ALONG CALIFORNIA 
COASTS PRODUCING SWELLS MOVING S OF 30N.  

CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS AND SWELL NOTED S OF 10N FROM 90W TO 
110W.

$$
WALLY BARNES