000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT 
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS ACTUALLY LOCATED 
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DRY AIR COMING FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W/101W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
CONVECTION IS ORIENTED LINEARLY ALONG THE ITCZ S OF THE MEXICAN 
COAST WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE AXIS SW OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRES 
MAY FORM ALONG THE WAVE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SEEMS 
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION. 
SEE ITCZ BELOW FOR RELATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 10N95W 8N120W 8N140W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-109W... 
112W-119W...AND W OF 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE N PART OF THE PACIFIC 
AREA DUE TO UPPER RIDGING LOCATED OFF THE W COAST OF THE UNITED 
STATES...AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM 30N128W TO 
22N140W. STRONG HIGH PRES COVERS THE REGION ANCHORED BY A 1026 
MB HIGH NEAR 32N129W WITH PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS COVERING THE 
SUBTROPICAL WATERS. THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE ZONAL E OF THE TROUGH 
ALTHOUGH A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 13N122W. THIS TROUGH IS CARVING AN AREA OF 
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE INTO THE ITCZ BELT...WITH CIRRUS OUTFLOW 
EXTENDING NE TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE 
ITCZ IS QUITE CONVECTIVE TODAY WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE 
ALONG 11N AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

FARTHER E...THE ITCZ IS ALSO CONVECTIVE E OF 110W WITH THE 
DIFFLUENT UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO COSTA RICA. AN ONGOING 
WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS FALLEN BELOW GALE 
CRITERIA...BUT THE N/NE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ENHANCING AN AREA OF 
VORTICITY TO ITS S ALONG THE ITCZ. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
AN AREA OF LOW PRES COULD FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THIS 
SPIN IN THE COMING DAYS...THEN MOVE IN A GENERAL W DIRECTION. AN 
INTENSE BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN 
COAST DUE TO CONVERGENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM 
NEAR PANAMA/COSTA RICA.

$$
BERG