000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 3N MOVING W 10-15 KT IS VIRTUALLY 
VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING 
ONLY MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W/99W FROM 3N TO 14N MOVING W 10 KT HAS 
SURVIVED COLD DRY OUTBURST OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND CONTINUES WWD WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AND 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N84W 10N110W 8N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH 
MEAN AXIS ALONG 140W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING WELL E 
TO THE W COAST OF CALIFORNIA. STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED 
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS CUTS UNDER THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM ARIZONA
WWD ALONG 30N THEN SWWD TO A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 24N138W. BROADLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA N OF 20N WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED. 
BROAD DIFFLUENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ W OF 125W AND DOMINATED THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
ELSEWHERE W OF 120W. 

FURTHER E...MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N98W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NWWD TO NEAR 16N110W. WEAK 40-50 KT UPPER 
JET CORE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE 
FROM ITCZ ACROSS SRN TIP OF BAJA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER 
RIDGING CENTERED OVER CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS W ALONG 15N TO E PAC 
NEAR 90W.

GAP WINDS...
SHIP REPORTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA CONFIRM THAT THE GALE FORCE WINDS 
HAVE ENDED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS EWD. MODERATE TO STRONG 
EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO PRESSING THROUGH THE GAPS INTO THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS AS CARIBBEAN 
RIDGE REMAINS STRONG AND FORCING WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
COBB