000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050411
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 3N MOVING W 12 KT HAS LOST MOST 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BUT LOW PRES CENTER 1007 MB AT 9N88W 
DRIFTING W DOES CARRY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST AHEAD OF WAVE. 
BOTH FEATURES EXPECTED TO MERGE AS WAVE AXIS CATCHES UP WITH LOW 
PRES.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF S 
SEMICIRCLE EVIDENT WITH LOW PRES.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 2N MOVING W 10 KT HAS SURPRISINGLY 
SURVIVED COLD DRY OUTBURST OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND CONTINUES WWD WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM E OF AXIS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF AXIS FROM 8N TO 9N.  
ALTHOUGH GAP WINDS AND ADVERSE WINDS ALOFT EXPECTED TO FURTHER 
WEAKEN WAVE...MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AWAIT WAVE W OF 100W... 
IF IT MAKES IT SO FAR.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N76W  9N90W  9N115W  7N130W  8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 87W TO 
100W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED AT 10N139W WITH RIDGE 
ACROSS AREA W OF 125W N OF ITCZ BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS NW PART OF
BASIN.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS FROM 32N108W TO 11N129W 
WITH DRY AIR ALONG ITS AXIS MARKING BOUNDARY TO MOISTURE COMING 
OVER UPSTREAM RIDGE.  

SECOND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 15N99W HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND NW TO THE ENTRANCE TO GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  WEAK 45 
KT UPPER JET CORE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ADVECTS TROPICAL 
MOISTURE FROM ITCZ ACROSS SRN TIP OF BAJA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. 

FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS W 
ALONG 15N TO E PAC NEAR 90W.

AT THE SURFACE...GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ALTHOUGH HAVE DECREASED POWER AND COVERAGE. 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT AS RIDGE OVER 
GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS E.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS SNEAK THROUGH 
MOUNTAINS JUST E OF GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 
NEXT 48 HRS AS CARIBBEAN RIDGE REMAINS STRONG AND FORCING WINDS 
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
WALLY BARNES