000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 3N MOVING W 12 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.  TSTMS OVER COSTA RICA 
AND NICARAGUA MORE OF WIND FLOW CONFLUENCE AND OROGRAPHIC NATURE 
THAN WAVE RELATED.  LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 9N88W DRIFTING W JUST 
AHEAD OF WAVE.  EXPECT BOTH FEATURES TO MERGE AS WAVE AXIS 
CATCHES UP WITH LOW PRES.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
240 NM RADIUS OF S SEMICIRCLE EVIDENT WITH LOW PRES.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 2N MOVING W 10 KT HAS SURPRISINGLY 
SURVIVED THE COLD DRY OUTBURST OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION W 
OF AXIS FROM 7N TO 12N.  ALTHOUGH GAP WINDS AND ADVERSE WINDS 
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN WAVE...MORE FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS AWAIT WAVE W OF 100W...IF IT MAKES IT SO FAR.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N84W  9N100W  10N120W  8N130W 8N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 86W TO 104W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 118W TO 122W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED AT 9N136W WITH RIDGE ACROSS 
AREA W OF 126W N OF ITCZ BRINGS MOISTURE ACROSS NW PART OF 
BASIN.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS FROM 32N109W TO 12N127W 
WITH DRY AIR ALONG ITS AXIS MARKING BOUNDARY TO MOISTURE COMING 
OVER UPSTREAM RIDGE.  

SECOND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 14N99W HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND NW TO BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  WEAK 40 KT UPPER 
JET CORE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE PUMPING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
FROM ITCZ ACROSS SRN TIP OF BAJA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. 

FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS W 
ALONG 13N TO E PAC NEAR 90W. 

AT THE SURFACE...GALE FORCE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS STILL 
REMAIN ALTHOUGH HAVE DECREASED IN AREA COVERAGE.  IT IS EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT AS RIDGE OVER GULF OF 
MEXICO SHIFTS E.  STRONG EASTERLY WINDS SNEAK THROUGH MOUNTAINS 
JUST E OF GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NEXT 48 HRS 
AS CARIBBEAN RIDGE REMAINS STRONG AND FORCING THE WINDS THROUGH 
CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
WALLY BARNES