000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY 
SHOWS WEAK MOSTLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND 1006 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 9N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  WAS 
EVIDENT WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS FEATURE. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT. STRONG OVERNIGHT 
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING OVER THE AREA W OF THE 
WAVE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EVIDENT ON QUIKSCAT IMAGERY N 
AND W OF THE WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH GALE EVENT IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY NEAR 
THE WAVE AS IT MOVES W. HOWEVER...FRESH NE WINDS FROM 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL DIMINISH NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE N OF 10N 
AS IT SHIFTS W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N84W 9N100W 10N120W 8N130W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 86W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OFF PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 16N106W 
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM GUATEMALA TO 12N124W. RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS N THROUGH BAJA PENINSULA. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS 
DIGGING W OF THE RIDGE NEAR 15N126W. WEAK 30 KT UPPER JET ON NRN 
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AND E OF THE TROUGH...IS PUMPING TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS SRN BAJA. N OF THIS...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AHEAD 
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 
30N140W. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS AIDING IN PROLIFIC CONVECTION ALONG 
ITCZ W OF 130W. 

FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS W 
ALONG 13N TO THE ERN PACIFIC NEAR 90W. UPPER DIVERGENCE W OF THE 
RIDGE IS AIDING CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ BETWEEN 86W AND 104W...AND 
NEAR TROPICAL WAVES AT 84W AND 95W. 

GALE FORCE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC GAP. RECENT 
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 400 NM TO THE SW 
OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE 
FORCE THROUGH TODAY AS RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS E. 20 KT 
GAPS ALSO EVIDENT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA...AND WILL LAST OVER 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN