000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. FURTHER 
W...1006 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 9N86W WAS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF 
MAINLY LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W/95W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT IS 
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
GALE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
WAVE AXIS AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS RUSHING OUT OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IS IGNITING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 45-60 NM OF A LINE FROM 14.5N92.5W TO 10N96.5W. 
THIS WAVE SHOULD BE SHUNTED S IN THE FACE OF THE SWATH OF STRONG 
COLD NORTHERLY WINDS WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N84W 8N100W 8N120W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 
138W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150-180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
110W AND 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FLOW N OF 20N IS MORE ZONAL IN NATURE THAN 24 HOURS AGO 
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES NOTED. FIRST RIDGE 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 125W WITH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES 
ADVECTING A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD. 
FURTHER EAST...A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE RIO 
GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS ACROSS NRN MEXICO THROUGH SRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N124W...THEN
CONTINUES TO NEAR 13N135W. CONFLUENCE WITHIN THE TROUGH 
MANIFESTED IN SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. VERY WEAK 50-60 KT JET CORE E OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS ADVECTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TOWARDS SRN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND 
SURFACE HIGH PRES PRECLUDES UPLIFTING MECHANISMS AND MAINTAINS 
MOIST PLUME DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. 

FARTHER E...MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
14N100W DOMINATES MOST OF E PAC E OF MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT AND IS 
CHARACTERIZED BY DRY SUBSIDING AIR WHICH IS STRONGEST NEAR THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. 

GAP WINDS...GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 
24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. WEAKER GAP WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SPEEDS OF 20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH 48 
HOURS. 

$$
COBB