000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040430
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT.  LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD 
CHANGE AS IT MOVES UNDER LESS ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT. 
WAVE BEING MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT HAS BEEN 
LITERALLY RIPPED APART N OF 15N BY UPPER TROUGH ACROSS GULF OF 
MEXICO.  WAVE AXIS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE STRONG DRY COLD NORTHERLIES SHOULD DISPELL 
CHANCES OF REDEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  8N78W  9N93W  8N133W  9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N W OF 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD RIDGE N OF 18N W OF 130W BRINGS LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE 
INTO E PAC WATERS CONTRASTING WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH MEANDERING FROM CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
15N126W 24N124W 11N135W.  TROUGH BRINGS DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 
300 NM W OF AXIS DUE TO CONFLUENCE ALOFT.  VERY WEAK 50 KT JET 
CORE AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS ADVECTING LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ITCZ TOWARDS SRN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRES 
PRECLUDES UPLIFTING MECHANISMS AND MAINTAINS MOIST PLUME DEVOID 
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. 

FARTHER E...MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 14N102W 
DRIES OUT MOST OF E PAC E OF MOIST PLUME ALOFT.  DRY SUBSIDING 
AIR DOMINATES REGION E OF 120W AND EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO 
AND ITS WATERS.  

AT THE SURFACE...TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED 
ABOVE SW COAST OF COSTA RICA AND GUATEMALA AS LOW PRES CENTER 
BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL AMERICA.  GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WINDS ENHANCED BY FORMATION OF LOW PRES OVER COSTA RICA 
STILL REMAINS NOT WELL DEFINED.

GAP WINDS...QUIKSCAT VERIFIES GALE FORCE N WINDS ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST 24 HOURS.  HIGH PRES 
OVER GULF OF MEXICO MOVES E AND EASES PRES GRADIENT AS WINDS 
VEER E AND SE.

$$
WALLY BARNES