000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032235
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT.  LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD 
CHANGE AS IT MOVES UNDER LESS ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT.  WAVE 
BEING MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT HAS BEEN 
LITERALLY RIPPED APART N OF 15N BY UPPER TROUGH ACROSS GULF OF 
MEXICO.  WAVE AXIS APPROACHING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE STRONG DRY COLD NORTHERLIES SHOULD DISPELL 
CHANCES OF REDEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  7N77W  10N87W  8N98W  7N120W  9N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 9N W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM N GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 15N129W TO 10N140W BRINGS DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 
300 NM W OF AXIS DUE TO CONFLUENCE ALOFT.  VERY WEAK 50 KT JET 
CORE AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS FROM ITCZ TOWARDS N BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO...BUT  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRES PRECLUDES UPLIFTING 
MECHANISMS AND MAINTAINS MOIST PLUME DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTION. 

FARTHER E...MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 13N102W 
DRIES OUT MOST OF E PAC E OF MOIST PLUME ALOFT.  DRY SUBSIDING 
AIR DOMINATES THE REGION E OF 113W AND EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF 
MEXICO AND WATERS.  

AT THE SURFACE...TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED 
ABOVE SW COAST OF COSTA RICA AND GUATEMALA AS LOW PRES CENTER 
BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER MOUNTAINS IN CENTRAL AMERICA.  GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WINDS ENHANCED BY FORMATION OF LOW PRES OVER COSTA RICA 
STILL REMAINS NOT WELL DEFINED.

GAP WINDS...QUIKSCAT VERIFIES GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST 24 HOURS.  PRES 
GRADIENT DECREASE AS WINDS OVER GULF O F MEXICO VEER E AND SE 
AHOULD BRING WINDS DOWN AFTER THAT.

$$
WALLY BARNES