000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031500
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT. THERE IS VERY 
LITTLE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME...AND IT 
IS MOVED W BY EXTRAPOLATION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 4N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE HAS 
SPLIT OFF FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED OVER THE FAR SW 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND ITS NRN EXTEND IS BEING 
OBLITERATED BY A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AND A GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION 
AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE 
STRONG NLY WINDS OVER TEHUANTEPEC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 10N87W 8N98W 7N120W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 83W-86W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

FLAT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE N PART OF THE 
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES. THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE IS A 
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 15N130W AND 
INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N140W. THERE IS A SHARPENING OF THE 
TROUGH OVER ITS SRN EXTENT S OF 16N...WHICH IS PRIMARILY EVIDENT 
BY A NARROW BAND OF STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. A 
1020 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 28N126W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE 
FIELD OF BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS N OF 15N W OF 
113W.

FARTHER E...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO 
NEAR 17N107W WITH THE UPPER FLOW EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. DRY SUBSIDING AIR DOMINATES THE 
REGION E OF 113W AND EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO AND THE 
WATERS TO THE S. ANOTHER AREA OF VERY DRY AIR IS SLIDING ACROSS 
SRN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE CARIBBEAN...AND IS SQUEEZING THE 
AVAILABLE DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE INTO A ZONE BETWEEN 83W-92W. A 
FEW CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE WITHIN THIS REGION OFF THE SW COAST OF 
COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS JUST W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

GAP WINDS...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST EVENING INDICATED WINDS 
HAD INCREASED TO 40 KT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THESE 
CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED INTO THIS MORNING. THE GALE EVENT WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS...AND WILL ONLY 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND FALL BELOW 30 KT EARLY MON. A WEAK 20 KT 
PAPAGAYO EVENT IS BEGINNING THIS MORNING WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM A 
1008 MB LOW OFF COSTA RICA NEAR 8N85W AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE 
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
BERG