000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 4N MOVING W 5-10 KT. A BROAD AREA 
OF LOW PRES CONTINUES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE EXTREME SW  
GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE E 
PACIFIC IS CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM 10N TO 13N E OF 87W TO 
COAST OF NICARAGUA. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 11N92W 8N115W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N E OF 89W TO THE COAST 
OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE AXIS W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES IN PLACE. 
FIRST MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 38N136W SWD TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
AND WAS LIFTING NWD OVER A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 125W/127W N OF 
23N. DOWNSTREAM WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS STILL EVIDENT FROM S 
CALIFORNIA SWD THROUGH 28N122W 22N125W BECOMING FRACTURED
ALONG 15N132W 10N140W. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY 
AIR WAS NOTED OVER THE FAR SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH GENERALLY 
FROM 10N TO 14N W OF 132W. 

FURTHER S...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N108W WITH A BROAD RIDGE 
EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR 30N109W AND COVERS MUCH OF OLD MEXICO. 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING S ACROSS THE 
EXTREME WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST W OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
25N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.

STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N76W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 18N90W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS AND ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

GAP WINDS...HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0024 UTC INDICATED 
30 TO 40 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS THEN 
SLOWLY DECREASE THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION NE WINDS OF 20 KT 
ARE EXPECTED IN GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO LATER TODAY 
AND PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB