000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030401
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 5N MOVING W 8 KT. A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES CONTINUES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE W GULF OF 
HONDURAS. CYCLONIC TURNING IS BARELY NOTICEABLE OVER THE E PAC. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 12N91W 9N100W 10N118W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 
130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT ALONG 26N127W 11N140W 
WITH DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 90 NM OF ITS AXIS. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 15N111W WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 
NEAR 30N120W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 116W AND 133W IS ADVECTED N BUT STILL REMAINING UNDER 
THE RIDGE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING S 
ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 17N103W. DRY UPPER AIR IS 
INDICATED N OF 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 92W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N74W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 18N91W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND 
ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ALL DESCRIBED ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...NLY WINDS 25 TO 35 KT IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE NEAR 40 KT FRI AND LAST INTO SAT. 
NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL BEGIN IN GULF OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO 
LATE TONIGHT. 

$$
NELSON