000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 5N MOVING W 8 KT. AN AREA OF LOW 
PRES CONTINUES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SW GULF OF HONDURAS 
NEAR 17N88W. CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE E PAC HAS DECREASED SINCE 
YESTERDAY AND THE WAVE POSITION IS MOSTLY EXTRAPOLATED. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
240 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 7N95W 10N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 
130W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N121W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT ALONG 25N130W 11N140W 
WITH DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 90 NM OF ITS AXIS. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 15N110W WITH A BROAD RIDGE N TO NEAR 
29N120W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 119W AND 
131W IS ADVECTED N REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE 
IS NOTED E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING S ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A BASE 
NEAR 16N108W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 14N BETWEEN 112W 
AND 93W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N78W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 17N91W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA...DESCRIBED ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...NLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KT IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN A FEW HOURS AND 
LAST INTO SAT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER 
WINDS AND A LONGER EVENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS ARE ALSO 
SHOWING NE WINDS 20-25 KT GULF OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO LATE 
TONIGHT. 

$$
NELSON