000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE RELOCATED ALONG 87W/88W N OF 5N MOVING W 5-10 KT. 
AN AREA OF LOW PRES APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS OVER THE SW GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. THE WAVE AXIS 
EXTENDS S OF EL SALVADOR BY EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 86W-92W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 8N88W 7N110W 12N124W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 92W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W-125W...AND 
131W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
N OF 15N WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED ALONG 133W. THE 
STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM ARE LOCATED N OF 
THE AREA PENETRATING INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE SW UNITED 
STATES...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST ARE 
EXCEEDING 50 KT. HIGH PRES DOMINATES THIS REGION AT THE SURFACE 
WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N124W...WHICH IS ACTING AS A BARRIER 
AGAINST A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR 30N137W 29N140W. FARTHER S...THE 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PULLED THE ITCZ NWD BETWEEN 110W-130W WITH 
ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE REGION S 
OF 20N IS FAIRLY DRY...WITH ONLY A NARROW BELT OF MOISTURE 
LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ITCZ AXIS.

DRY CONDITIONS ALSO EXTEND FARTHER E ACROSS THE FAR E PACIFIC 
WATERS AND MEXICO. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE 
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND OFF ITS 
PACIFIC COAST...BUT ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEGINNING 
TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN.

GAP WINDS...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE RUNNING ABOUT 
20-25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS BY 
0000 UTC THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE LOW END OF GALE CRITERIA FOR 
ABOUT 36 HRS AND SHOULD FALL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY 1200 UTC 
SAT...WITH AT LEAST 20 KT CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. 
ALSO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO BY 1200 UTC FRI AS WINDS INCREASE A BIT OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN.

$$
BERG