000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 8N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND OVER BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN ADDITION SOME MID LEVEL CYCLONIC 
TURNING WAS NOTED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED N OF THE ITCZ TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 8N100W 11N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 118W AND 123W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD TROUGHING WAS NOTED OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AND WAS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE. ANOTHER TROUGH 
APPEARS TO HAVE FRACTURED FROM THE MAIN TROUGH NOTED ABOVE 
AND EXTENDS FROM 20N135W SWD TO NEAR 8N140W. TO THE E OF THIS
AREA OF TROUGHINESS AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG 120W 
EXTENDED DEEP INTO THE TROPICS AND WAS IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N115W. DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH IS NOTED N OF 23N ALONG 106W/107W. AN AREA OF STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE 
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ. VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER LEVELS WAS NOTED S OF THE ITCZ W OF 
120W.  

UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA/17N78W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE CENTER NEAR 
12N105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE MOSTLY SPREADING WWD TO ALONG 93W UNDER THE RIDGE. 

GAP WINDS...A WEAK TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS UNDERWAY WITH THE 0050 
UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. A COLD FRONT AND 
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
THE GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE THU EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO 
LAST INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB