000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020358
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 5N MOVING W 8 KT. THE WAVE IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT ALONG THE E COAST OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT HAS MUCH BROADER CYCLONIC TURNING 
OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED N OF THE ITCZ TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST 
BETWEEN 81W AND 87W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 9N100W 12N116W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST 
BETWEEN 81W AND 92W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
7N109W 14N120W 7N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS LOCATED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
42N145W...SHIFTING SE...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S 
ALONG 32N138W 19N138W. TO THE SE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 
14N114W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW CRESTING GENTLY ALONG POINTS 
20N137W 25N128W 23N116W. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED N 
OF 24N ALONG 111W. A BAND OF STRONG DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 30N100W 26N115W 28N127W 
25N134W...AND A SECOND BAND IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 20N100W 20N100W 19N124W 12N140W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 126W IS STREAMING ENE TO THE S OF 
THE SECOND DRY AIR BAND MENTIONED ABOVE. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W WITH A 
RIDGE SW TO NEAR 12N103W WHERE ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
NOTED. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE MOSTLY 
SPREADING NE UNDER THE RIDGE. 

GAP WINDS...A WEAK TEHUANTEPEC EVENT BEGAN THIS MORNING WITH NLY 
WINDS TO 20 KT...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
LATE THU AND LAST INTO FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
NELSON