000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS BUT HAS VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE OVER THE E PACIFIC 
WATERS. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 7.5N82.5W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 10N106W 11N116W 7N140W.
EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
87W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 7N102W 14N119W 7N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED QUASI STATIONARY CYCLONE IS LOCATED WELL NW OF 
THE AREA NEAR 42N146W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 
32N140W 26N144W 21N140W. TO THE SE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
NEAR 14N114W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW CRESTING GENTLY ALONG 
POINTS 22N137W 25N130W 24N116W. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
NOTED N OF 25N ALONG 114W. A BAND OF STRONG DRY UPPER AIR IS 
INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 31N103W 26N116W 
27N130W 23N138W AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 23N90W 
20N100W 17N130W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 
114W AND 128W IS STREAMING ENE TO THE S OF THE DRY AIR MENTIONED 
ABOVE. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W WITH A 
RIDGE SW TO NEAR 13N94W.

GAP WINDS...A WEAK TEHUANTEPEC EVENT BEGAN THIS MORNING WITH NLY 
WINDS TO 20 KT...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
LATE THU.

$$
NELSON