000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN BUT 
HAS VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS. A CLUSTER 
OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES OFF THE COSTA RICA 
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 83W-86W...AND SW OF EL SALVADOR FROM 11N-14N 
BETWEEN 89W-91W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N78W 7N93W 13N116W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 3N-9N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS LOCATED WELL NW 
OF THE AREA NEAR 43N146W AND IS PRODUCING A GENERALLY FLAT 
HEIGHT PATTERN N OF 20N. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED 
ALONG 141W AND IS BACKING THE WINDS TO SWLY JUST AHEAD OF 
IT...BUT THEN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS BACK TO WLY AS THE FLOW HEADS 
TOWARDS BAJA. A WEAK 70-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 
20N140W TO CENTRAL BAJA...ALTHOUGH IS LARGELY BEING OVERSHADOWED 
BY A STRONGER JET BETWEEN HAWAII AND CALIFORNIA. CIRRUS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET IS SKIRTING THE AREA NW OF LINE 24N140W 
30N130W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 20N IS DOMINATED BY HIGH 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N126W.

DIFFLUENT UPPER AXIS LIES ROUGHLY ALONG 10N/11N WITH THE SWLY 
FLOW LOCATED FARTHER N...AND THIS LIES COINCIDENT WITH THE ITCZ 
WITH AN ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 106W-127W. THIS 
CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 
121W/122W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA 
SW ACROSS HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA TO 10N100W WITH DEEP-LAYERED 
MOISTURE FOCUSED MAINLY SE OF THIS AXIS. DRY AIR LIES OVER THE 
REGION FROM SW GUATEMALA TO MANZANILLO SWD TO 10N. A WEAK 
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT BEGAN THIS MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AT 
LEAST 20 KT. AN ARC CLOUDS LYING 240 NM S OF THE TEHUANTEPEC 
COAST MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SURGE. 

$$
BERG