000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 4N.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 841W AND 90W AS WAVE IS UNDER AREA OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...BUT NOW MOVES INTO ZONE OF ADVERSE 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR MASS.
ITS CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT DIMINISH.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W  12N112W  6N124W  7N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 109W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 115W TO 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 140W MOVING E COLLIDES WITH 
WELL ANCHORED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 10N123W.  TROUGH LIKELY TO 
STEER NE OVER RIDGE CREST MOVING N OF FORECAST WATERS.  WEAK 
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ENTERS NW CORNER OF AREA AND 
IS FORCED N BY RIDGE.  SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 
27N123W SUSTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 20N W 
OF 120W.  RIDGE FEELS PUSH FROM UPPER TROUGH AND SQUEEZES 
GRADIENT ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST FOR SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LIKELY TO ALLOW GULF OF MEXICO WINDS CROSS 
THROUGH ISTHMUS AND STRENGTHEN...BUT EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF 
GALE FORCE.  CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND AND SWELLS AFFECTING E PAC S 
OF 8N E OF 125W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES