000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 4N. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER PACIFIC WATERS AT THIS 
TIME...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF 
NICARAGUA. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 9N94W 13N108W 8N125W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE 
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 
NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 120N...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY DIGGING INTO THE NW FORECAST AREA N OF 21N W OF 130W. 
THIS FEATURE WILL DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE 
MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS TO THE N OF THE AREA LIFT OUT. AS A 
RESULT...1022 MB BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 28N127W WILL 
NOT WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY. FURTHER 
W...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W WILL 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RIDGE BUILDS. 
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

S OF 120N...UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL MEXICO 
THROUGH 10N140W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER 
RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 
129W. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASSES CONFIRM CONTINUATION OF MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ GENERALLY W 
OF 115W. WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE 
STARTING TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.

$$

CHRISTENSEN