000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311509
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS HELD ALONG 81W/82W N OF 4N BASED ON A 1106 UTC 
QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS THE AXIS JUST PAST GRAND CAYMAN OVER 
THE W CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W 10 KT. THE BULK OF 
THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS LOCATED N OF 5N E OF 85W PARTLY IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IS HELD ALONG 88W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED JUST W OF THE NICOYA PENINSULA OF COSTA RICA. ONLY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORMING ALONG A LINE FROM 9N-12N 
BETWEEN 87W-89W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 7N94W 13N115W 8N130W 8N140W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 96W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N 
BETWEEN 110W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE MID-LATITUDE AREA OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH SLIGHT TROUGHING LOCATED BETWEEN 140W AND 
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 
100 KT WITH THE JET CORE EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM 23N140W TO 
NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. BROKEN CIRRUS LIES WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE BELT EXTENDING 450 NM SE OF THE JET. THE ZONAL FLOW HAS 
CAUSED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM 30N135W TO 
25N140W...AND IT IS PRECEDED BY A BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS WITH 
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS UP TO 180 NM TO THE SE. AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...A THICKER STRATUS FIELD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAS 
BEEN ADVECTED SWD N OF 25N E OF 124W TO THE BAJA COAST.

FARTHER S...A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS W OF MEXICO ALONG 
19N WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING OVER THE ITCZ AND ENHANCING 
CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-130W. WEAK UPPER FLOW LIES 
OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC REGION...BOUNDED BY STRONGER WESTERLIES 
OVER MEXICO/GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERLIES FLOWING ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR S OF 6N. THIS IS PRODUCING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT WHICH 
COULD NORMALLY SUPPORT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT CURRENTLY 
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
ENHANCING SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE. MOISTURE WILL 
BEGIN TO ADVECT WWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE PACIFIC 
WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
BERG