000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310405
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 5N TO ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS AND TO
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW NEAR 17N86W IS MOVING W 10-15 
KT. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL
AND ERN HONDURAS AND NEAR THE NW COAST OF COSTA RICA. A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM 0000 UTC THIS EVENING SHOWED SLIGHT CYCLONIC ROTATION
OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-9N.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF
THE E PAC AND EXTENDS ALONG 81W N OF 5N REACHING NWD TO ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF PANAMA. THE WAVE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND N 
ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W 15 KT. ONLY 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG ITCZ NEAR 11N118W MOVING WNW AT 10 
KT. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150-180 NM NW OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 8N92W 11N115W 7N128W 8N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 97W-100W AND BETWEEN 110W-114W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 118W-120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEEN HERE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 121W QUICKLY SHIFTS EWD...IN ADVANCE OF A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 25N W OF 130W. A LESS DISCERNIBLE 
RIDGE IS JUST W OF THE AREA ALONG 142W. SW-W MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA W OF ABOUT 121W...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW 
IS SEEN E OF THE RIDGE ALONG 121W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 70-90 KT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAM 
BRANCH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N140W THROUGH 28N130W THEN ACROSS THE 
CREST OF THE RIDGE NEAR 28N121W AND DIVES SEWD ACROSS NRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER 
TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM 30N137W TO 28N140W. A 1020 MB 
HIGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N127W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 22N134W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA 
N OF 22N W OF 120W. FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS HAS PATTERN 
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING TOWARD THE 
BAJA COAST BY FRI AND THE TROUGH SLIDING EWD TO THE ERN PART OF
THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ONLY CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE 
NEXT 2 DAYS...BLOCKING FURTHER EWD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. ONLY
POSSIBLE SLIGHT CHANGE IS FOR NW WINDS TO INCREASE SOME NEAR THE 
NRN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HRS AS 
RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE MORE EWD...AND HEAT TROUGH BECOMES MORE 
PRONOUNCED FROM SRN CALIFORNIA SEWD TO NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

S OF 20N...THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE ARE NOT EXPECTED 
TO PLAY ANY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS 
AREA. GAP WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EWD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK...
ALLOWING FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN.
S OF 10N...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN BECOME LIGHT FRI AND SAT WITH
LARGE SWELL W OF 100W THEN DECREASE LATE FRI AND SAT.

$$
AGUIRRE