000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 5N TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND NE
HONDURAS IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE OVER S NICARAGUA AS MAIN AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS N OF THE E PAC OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF
THE E PAC AND EXTENDS ALONG 79W N OF 5N REACHING NWD TO ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF PANAMA. THE WAVE AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND
N ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 12 
KT. ISOLATED SMALL STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE INTERIOR PORTION OF PANAMA.

1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG ITCZ NEAR 11N118W MOVING WNW AT 10 
KT. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150-180 NM NW OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 8N90W 11N115W 8N125W 7N130W
8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 114W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-109W AND 126W-128W. 

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG 125W SHIFTS EASTWARD...AHEAD OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING NW OF THE AREA ALONG 145W. E OF THE 
RIDGE...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INLAND OVER THE SW 
UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO. 80-90 KT SWLY UPPER JET IS EVIDENT 
BETWEEN THE TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE W AND THE UPPER RIDGE. AT 
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM 30N137W TO 27N140W. A 1021 MB HIGH 
IS ANALYZED E OF THE FRONT 29N128W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
SW TO NEAR 22N118W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N
W OF 115W. FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS HAS PATTERN BECOMING 
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING TOWARD THE BAJA 
COAST BY FRI AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO 135W. THE 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE...BLOCKING FURTHER 
EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. NWLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE 
EVIDENT ALONG THE NRN COAST OF BAJA...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW 
PRESSURE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS 
THE RIDGE BUILDS E.

S OF 20N...THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE ARE NOT EXPECTED 
TO PLAY ANY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
THIS AREA. N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 20 KT IN 6 HRS AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT
IN 18 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND 
SHIFTS EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK...ALLOWING FOR TEHUANTEPEC WINDS 
TO INCREASE AGAIN. S OF 10N...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL FLOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE SWELL W OF 122W. 

$$
AGUIRRE