000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 6N ACROSS WESTERN COSTA RICA IS 
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE. 

1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG ITCZ NEAR 11N117W MOVING NW AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 
LINE 10N113W 9N117W...AND WITH 30 NM OF LINE 14N113W 13N117W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 8N93W 11N114W 7N130W 8N137W 
8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG 128W SHIFTS EASTWARD...AHEAD OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING NW OF THE AREA ALONG 145W. E OF THE 
RIDGE...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INLAND OVER THE SW 
UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO. 80-90 KT SWLY UPPER JET IS EVIDENT 
BETWEEN THE TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE W AND THE UPPER RIDGE. AT 
THE SURFACE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING 
INTO THE FORECAST AREA N OF 26N AND W OF 136W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NWLY WINDS BEHIND THIS 
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED E OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N127W. 
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS HAS PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED 
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING TOWARD THE BAJA COAST BY FRI AND 
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING TO 135W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE...BLOCKING FURTHER EASTWARD ADVANCE OF 
THE FRONT. NWLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE 
NRN COAST OF BAJA...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 
SW UNITED STATES. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS E.

S OF 20N...WEAK TROPICAL WAVES NEAR THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST 
WILL DAMPEN OUT AS THEY MOVE W THROUGH THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW CENTER NEAR 11N117W IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN 
SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY NW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NELY WINDS BETWEEN 
THE TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE STILL NEAR 
20 KT JUDGING FROM LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM IXTEPEC MX. 
HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH 
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND 
SHIFTS EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATER IN 
THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR TEHUANTEPEC WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN. S 
OF 10N...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW WILL 
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE SWELL W OF 122W. 

$$
EC