000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300944
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 5N ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA IS MOVING 
W 10 TO 15 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EITHER OVER NICARAGUA 
OR OFFSHORE OF N HONDURAS IN THE CARIBBEAN. ONLY ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ON THE PACIFIC SIDE JUST W OF COSTA RICA AND 
NICARAGUA. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING OFF THE HONDURAN CARIBBEAN SIDE 
BUT MAY NOT BE AT THE SURFACE. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 9N102W 10N111W 8N122W 10N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N80W 7N82W 9N95W 12N104W AND 
12N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 
123W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N128W AND 13N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES REMAINS QUITE STRONG..TYPICAL 
OF A EL NINO PERIOD. THE STRONG FLOW IS BETWEEN 20N AND 30N 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT. EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE TWO 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS..ONE ALONG 115W MOVING ENE AT 40 KT..AND THE 
OTHER JUST W OF THE REGION ALONG 145W MOVING ENE 30 KT. A FLAT 
RIDGE LIES W TO E ALONG 16N TO 18N FROM W OF 140W TO S CENTRAL 
MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING E INTO 
THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE 
SLY 20 KT N OF 25N AND W OF 135W. THE PACIFIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 
130W AND COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 110W. A WEAK LOW 1009 MB 
IS ON THE ITCZ NEAR 9N117W MOVING SLOWLY W. THE GALE IN THE BAY 
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS ENDED BUT N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE 
TIL DAYBREAK. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 15 KT WITH 
SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT 
WITH SLY SWELL TO 9 FT S OF 5N.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE FIRST 
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO 105W LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER NRN 
MEXICO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER 
VORTEX NEAR 37N145W AND WILL ROTATE NE AROUND THE LOW. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE 
REGION BEGINS TO WASHOUT EXTENDING FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W. THE 
PACIFIC HIGH 1021 MB WILL BE NEAR 29N129W AND COVER THE AREA N 
OF 10N W OF 110W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN 10 TO 
15 KT. NE TRADES TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 12N AND 22N FROM 
118W TO 140W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW ON THE ITCZ MOVES SLOWLY 
TO NEAR 20N120W. TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIE DOWN TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH 
NE SWELL 9 TO 11 FT COVERING AN AREA TO 5N BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BETWEEN 105W AND 
125W DUE TO THE WEAK LOW ON THE ITCZ. 

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES PERSISTS N OF 
22N. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER ERN TX AND MOVING AWAY 
FROM THE AREA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CURVES NE WITH THE UPPER LOW 
CENTER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE FLAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG 
15 TO 18N FROM W OF 140W TO S CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE DAY 
2 THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES AND THE PACIFIC RIDGE 1020 MB DRIFTS 
E TO NEAR 29N127W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN NWLY 10 TO 
15 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE LOW ON THE ITCZ CHANGES LITTLE 
AND MOVES TO NEAR 11N119W. TEHUANTEPEC WINDS BECOME 10 TO 15 KT 
WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 5 TO 7 FT MOSTLY IN NE LEFT OVER SWELL. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS S OF 8N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W WILL BE 
15 TO 20 KT WITH SLY SWELL TO 9 FT. S OF 5N E OF 100W WINDS WILL 
BE S TO SW 15 KT AND SLY SWELL TO 8 FT.   

$$
RRG