000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W N OF 5N ACROSS PANAMA IS MOVING W 10 TO 
15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 8N95W 10N108W 9N120W 10N130W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 
107W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W 
AND 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 128W 
INTO NW MEXICO WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 123W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING E 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. A STRONG JET HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING TROUGH 
26N140W TO 27N130W AND THEN DIPS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO THE BASE 
OF THE TROUGH NEAR 25N123W AND THEN TURNS NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE JET IS STRONGEST W OF 130W WITH WINDS IN 
THE 80 TO 90 KNOT RANGE BASED ON CLOUD DRIFT WINDS. FURTHER 
SOUTH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP 
TROPICS S OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 
THE UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE FAR SE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
SURROUNDING WATERS WITH WINDS AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND SEAS 12 TO 
16 FEET. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW GALE FORCE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS.

$$
CAB