000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291617
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W N OF 5N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 79W-82W. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS
MORNING REVEALED SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 81W-84W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N80W 8N95W 10N106W 9N130W 10N130W
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 109W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AS
A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NRN PART OF THE REGION. A MEAN TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH 32N125W TO 27N128W. A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM 32N136W TO 
26N136W. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE REGION ALONG 
144W IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM 
BRANCH EXTENDS FROM 25N140W TO NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...ON THE N 
SIDE OF AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CANOPY...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 110 
KT WITHIN AN AREA CONFINED FROM 23N-26.5N W OF 130W. TO THE SE 
OF THE BROAD SWLY FLOW...A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO SW THROUGH 17N116W TO ABOUT 
13.5N125W...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA FROM
9N-15N W OF 125W. DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND THE 
TROUGH TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN ITCZ CONVECTION 
PRIMARILY W OF 132W. THE VERY WEAK SMALL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF 
T.D. EIGHTEEN-E IS NOTED BENEATH THE RIDGE NEAR 16N110W MOVING 
W 10 KT...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROUGH IN SHORT WHILE AS 
A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING AROUND 1330 UTC INDICATED
AN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IT. ONLY

OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC...THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CONVECTIVELY ACTIVITY E OF 110W. A GALE OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH N-NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 18 HRS AS HIGH PRES OVER MEXICO
WEAKENS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN EXTENT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
80W N OF 5N. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS 
COSTA RICA...NORTHERN PANAMA AND NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS 
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OF SOME AREAS OF THESE 
LOCATIONS.

$$
AGUIRRE