000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290909
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N82W 8N92W 10N108W 10N124W 11N133W 
9N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N83W 7N89W 7N95W 
8N101W 8N108W AND 9N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR 13N106W AND 
ALONG A LINE FROM 12N115W TO 11N121W AND FROM 13N131W TO 
13N136W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST FROM 8N84W 
TO 11N88W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER SRN 
MEXICO THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS MOVED SLOWLY WWD ALONG 20N AND NOW 
COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 100W AND 140W. A STRONG SWLY FLOW RIDES 
OVER THE RIDGE BETWEEN 20N AND 30N WITH ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING ENE 
ALONG 125W. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIES NW OF THE AREA ALONG 145W N 
OF 30N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT GALE CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH ONE SHIP REPORTING 45 KT AT 03Z. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR 24 HR. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
LIES ALONG 130W AND NE TRADES TO 20 KT ARE EVIDENT BETWEEN 15N 
AND 23N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY 10 TO 15 
KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE MAINLY S OF 6N E OF 
110W. 

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXCEPT FOR IT 
SAGGING SWD TO ALONG 18N. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
BETWEEN 23N TO 30N WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING TO 120W. THE DEEP 
TROUGH NW OF THE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EWD AND BEGINS TO LOWER MID 
LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA. ON THE 
SURFACE GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC BUT 
SOMEWHAT WEAKER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS. SLY 
WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA INCREASE TO 20 KT 
WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN 
LIGHT NWLY AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN TO 20 KT S OF 
5N E OF 110W. 

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE REGION WITH 
IT'S AXIS ALONG 16N. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN 23N 
AND 30N. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONINUES EWD OVER THE SW U.S. AND 
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CLOSED CUTOFF LOW ALOFT NW OF THE AREA 
CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD TO 35N143W AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS 
CONTINUE FALLING N OF 25N W OF 130W WHICH SUPPORT MOVEMENT OF 
THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EXTREME 
NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE DAY 2 WITH WINDS OF 20 KT. SEAS 
INCREASE 9 TO 12 FT WITH SW SWELL. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS 
WEAK AT 1019 MB AND CENTERED NEAR 27N127W. NE TO E TRADES ARE 
MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. TEHAUNTEPEC WINDS WEAKEN BELOW 
GALE FORCE AS THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EWD. LITTLE 
CHANGE TO CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS.

$$
RRG