000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 8N100W 10N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 
86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
88W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE W/NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA COURTESY OF A SHEAR AXIS W OF THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 23N140W TO NRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...ON THE N SIDE OF AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS CANOPY...WITH 
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100 KT IN A JET CORE NEAR 26N130W. FARTHER 
S...A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA 
MEXICO SW TO 11N130W 10N140W...AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THE REMNANT 
CIRCULATION OF T.D. EIGHTEEN-E IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE NEAR 
16N107W MOVING W ABOUT 5 KT. ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN 
DEVELOPING 100 NM W OF THE CENTER...POSSIBLY BEING LIMITED BY 
DRY AIR AND EASTERLY SHEAR.

OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC...THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY LINEAR BUT 
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE E OF 94W ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. A GALE EVENT HAS BEGUN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER WINDS IS MARKED BY AN ARC CLOUD WHICH 
IS TRAVELING SW OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 96W. THE GALE EVENT IS 
EXPECTED TO LAST FOR ANOTHER 48 HRS OR SO...ENDING EARLY MON 
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS HUNG UP ALONG THE 
MOUNTAINS OF SRN MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF 
TABASCO AND CHIAPAS...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE 
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC COAST. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION LIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS E OF MANZANILLO AND THE 
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 101W-103W.

$$
BERG