000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261644 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU OCT 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E NEAR 16.8N 104.2W 1008 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 26 IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION FORMED JUST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OVERALL BANDING FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTION REMAINS TIGHTLY ORGANIZED IN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN ABOUT 12 HRS...AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THEN WESTWARD AFTERWARDS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 10N90W 13N100W 10N110W 9N120W 12N135W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-126W... WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 139W AND FROM 4N-7N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108.5W-112W. ...DISCUSSION... AREA IS DOMINATED BY BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NW OF LINE 12N137W 19N129W 23N122W NE TO NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N127W SW TO AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WSW ABOUT 17 KT NEAR 27N137W THEN SWD THROUGH 23N137W TO 19N137W TO 16N138W. STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS USHERING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 17N W OF 130W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AREA IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N130W NE THROUGH 27N125W TO ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW EXTENDED WELL INTO THE TROPICS AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEWD TOWARDS NRN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH WITHIN ABOUT 350 NM SE OF THE BROAD TROUGH. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 13.5N136W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IS MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N132W 28N123W SE 26N116W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N W OF 118W. FURTHER E AND SE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH 16N108W TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N116W...AND CONTINUES SWD TO 9N123W. THIS RIDGE WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY E OF 105W WHERE WIDESPREAD MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS ALSO FOUND KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION TO MINIMUM. BESIDES SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 78W-81W ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXISTS HERE. THE ITCZ HAS BEEN PINCHED NWD UP TO NEAR 16N IN THE VICINITY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E. GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT NW-N OF 20 KT WINDS BEGIN OVER THE NRN SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 24 HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN ABOUT 48 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261644 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU OCT 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E NEAR 16.8N 104.2W 1008 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 26 IS MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION FORMED JUST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OVERALL BANDING FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTION REMAINS TIGHTLY ORGANIZED IN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER EXCEPT THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN ABOUT 12 HRS...AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THEN WESTWARD AFTERWARDS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 10N90W 13N100W 10N110W 9N120W 12N135W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-126W... WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 139W AND FROM 4N-7N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108.5W-112W. ...DISCUSSION... AREA IS DOMINATED BY BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NW OF LINE 12N137W 19N129W 23N122W NE TO NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N127W SW TO AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WSW ABOUT 17 KT NEAR 27N137W THEN SWD THROUGH 23N137W TO 19N137W TO 16N138W. STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS USHERING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 17N W OF 130W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AREA IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N130W NE THROUGH 27N125W TO ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA AND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW EXTENDED WELL INTO THE TROPICS AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT AMPLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEWD TOWARDS NRN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH WITHIN ABOUT 350 NM SE OF THE BROAD TROUGH. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 13.5N136W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IS MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N132W 28N123W SE 26N116W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N W OF 118W. FURTHER E AND SE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH 16N108W TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N116W...AND CONTINUES SWD TO 9N123W. THIS RIDGE WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY E OF 105W WHERE WIDESPREAD MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS ALSO FOUND KEEPING DEEP CONVECTION TO MINIMUM. BESIDES SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 78W-81W ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXISTS HERE. THE ITCZ HAS BEEN PINCHED NWD UP TO NEAR 16N IN THE VICINITY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E. GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT NW-N OF 20 KT WINDS BEGIN OVER THE NRN SEA OF CORTEZ TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 24 HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN ABOUT 48 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE