000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL NEAR 25.2N 107.8W 1008 MB AT 0900 UTC 
OCT 26 MOVING NNE OR 020 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 
KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER 
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. PAUL HAS MOVED INLAND AND 
WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 1800 UTC OCT 26. 

.TROPICAL LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 17N103W MOVING NW 5 TO 10 KT. 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED 
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 10N93W 17N103W 10N117W 14N132W 
10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N79W 11N88W 12N97W 
11N110W AND 8N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF 9N125W 
AND 12N128W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 10N138W 12N139W AND 10N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A CUTOFF LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 25N132W
ELONGATED NE TO SW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONFINED TO THE NE SECTOR OF THE LOW WITH VERY DRY UPPER 
ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE W AND S SIDES. MID LEVELS RIDGES WERE 
LOCATED NW OF THE AREA ALONG 35N140W AND THE OTHER OVER S 
CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDING W TO 15N115W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL HAS MOVED INLAND OVER WRN MEXICO. A NEW 
DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR 17N103W MOVING WNW 5 TO 10 KT. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE AXIS WAS ALONG 30N132W TO 15N110W. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST WERE MOSTLY 15 KT FROM THE NW. NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 
KT WERE LOCATED W OF 130W N OF 15N. GAP WINDS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT 
WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS TO 20 KT WERE W OF 110W S OF 5N.

LATER DAY 1 A STRONG CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SWD OVER THE 
SW US LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS N OF 25N E OF 110W. THE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE OVER SRN MEXICO WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WHILE THE 
OTHER MID LEVEL RIDGE NW OF THE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EWD TO 
35N135W. THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT REMAINS ELONGATED NE TO SW BETWEEN 
26N125W AND 22N140W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE DISTURBANCE 
OFF THE MEXICAN COAST SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH GUSTY NE 
AND E WINDS CONTINUING W OF 130W. SOME INCREASE IN GAP WINDS TO 
20 KT N OF 10N E OF 90W. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL 
REMAIN S OF 5N W OF 110W.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE AREA 
BUT NOT BEFORE INFLUENCING THE OTHER SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION. 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SRN MEXICO SHIFTS WWD TO 20N115W WHILE 
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES N TO 28N W OF 120W. THE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE NW OF THE AREA MOVES EWD TO THE CA COAST.  ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE DISTURBANCE 
MENTIONED ABOVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WITH NE TO E TRADED W OF 130W MOSTLY 20 KT. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST INCREASE SOME FROM THE NE TO 20 KT. 
GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME W OF 110W WHILE 
E OF 110W THERE IS AN INCREASE IN SLY WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 5N. 
  
$$
RRG