000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU OCT 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL NEAR 24.7N 108.1W 1007 MB AT 0300 UTC 
OCT 26 MOVING N OR 350 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 
KT GUSTS 35 KT.  OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER 
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. 

 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 11N100W 10N115W 13N130W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 120 NM WIDE 78W TO 80W. 
CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 180 NM WIDE 130W 
TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT UPPER LEVELS NEAR 27N131W IS NEAR 
STATIONARY  AND DIMINATED THE AREA  N OF 15N W OF 130W. TROPICAL 
MOISTURE  WITHIN 300 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N140W TO CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IS MOVING RAPIDLY NE INTO MEXICO AND THE SW U. S. 

A LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE UPPER LEVELS AND EXTENDS 
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SW TO 4N140W. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN DIPS INTO CENTRAL NICARAGUA.
 
AT THE SURFACE A LOW CENTER NEAR 17N102W IN AN AREA OF DISTURBED 
WEATHER CENTERED HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND 
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO WEST OR 
WEST-NORTHWEST.  

$$
FETS