000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

.TROPICAL STORM PAUL NEAR 24.0N 107.5W 1002 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 
25 MOVING NE OR 050 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT 
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT.  SEAS 12 FT 
OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 11N100W 10N115W 13N130W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 120 NM WIDE 78W TO 80W. 
CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE 140 NM WIDE 112W TO 118W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 180 NM WIDE 130W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT UPPER LEVELS NEAR 27N131W IS NEAR 
STATIONARY  AND DIMINATED THE AREA  N OF 15N W OF 130W. TROPICAL 
MOISTURE  WITHIN 300 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N140W TO CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IS MOVING RAPIDLY NE INTO MEXICO AND THE SW U. S. 

A LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE UPPER LEVELS AND EXTENDS 
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SW TO 4N140W. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN DIPS INTO CENTRAL NICARAGUA.
 
AT THE SURFACE A LOW CENTER NEAR 15N102W  IN A DISORGANIZED AREA 
OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR TWO. 

$$
TORRES SUAREZ