000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED OCT 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 108.8W OR ABOUT 70 NM 
...115 KM...EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 155 NM...245
KM...WEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AT 25/1500 UTC MOVING NE AT 12 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. PAUL CONTINUES TO UNDERGO
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AS IT MOVES TO THE NE. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS DE-COUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION...WITH 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER OVER THE NE 
QUADRANT AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM 
NE OF CENTER. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST MOVE INLAND THE WEST- 
CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT 12 HRS AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A 
DEPRESSION THEREAFTER THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF 
MEXICO IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 14N100W 10N111W 9N120W 10N130W
10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS W OF 136W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 112W-117W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
EXISTS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 92W-94W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W-136W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-88W.

...DISCUSSION...

AREA IS DOMINATED BY A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 
12N W OF 115W WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 
32N125W SW TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING 
SSE ABOUT 15 KT NEAR 25N135W. STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE BASE OF 
THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY 
AIR N OF 18N TO LINE FROM 28N140W 22N129W AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 23.5N129W TO 28.5N123W. THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE SUBSIDENCE REGION WAS PRESSING SWD AT ABOUT 10-15 KT AS 
WELL. STRONG DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW EXTENDED WELL INTO THE 
TROPICS AND CONTINUES TO DISPLACE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION TO 
THE EAST OF A WEAK 1006 MB LOW JUST N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 14N133W. 
THIS CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N128W 
15N132W. THESE STRONG SW WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. 

FURTHER E...ANOTHER SHEARED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CONUS 
SWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL. 
THIS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WHICH IS 
SHREDDING TROPICAL STORM PAUL AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND IS ALSO 
PULLING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS NE TOWARDS NRN MEXICO AND THE 
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS OF THE CONUS. 

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO SW TO NEAR 
15N102W. THE ITCZ HAS BEEN PINCHED NWD ALONG 13N/14N BETWEEN
90W-100W WITH A 1011 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 15N102W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES SHOWING SOME CYCLONIC 
ROTATION AROUND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 101W-105W. SOME SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.  

$$
AGUIRRE