000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.8N 109.9W OR ABOUT 65 NM
...120 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 215 NM...
390 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AT 25/0900 UTC MOVING 
NE AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. A SHIP 
WITH CALL SIGN PDAN APPARENTLY VERY CLOSE TO THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER JUST REPORTED SSE WINDS OF 43 KT WITH A PRESSURE OF 1004 
MB. SATELLITE-WISE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS PUNCHING 
INTO THE CIRCULATION OF PAUL AND DISPLACING ALL THE DEEP 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150-180 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS AT THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS BECOMING 
INCREASINGLY EXPOSED WITH TIME. PAUL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NE 
AT A SLOWER RATE AND WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 18-24 
HOURS BEFORE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WEST/CENTRAL COAST OF 
MEXICO AS A DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 14N99W 10N110W 
8N123W 10N135W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 125W...AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS WELL INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AND COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 120W. A 
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 
26N137W WAS DROPPING SWD 10 KT. STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE BASE 
OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED 
DRY AIR WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 19N140W 21N133W. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE SUBSIDENCE REGION WAS PRESSING SWD AT 10 KT 
AS WELL. STRONG DEEP LAYERED WSWLY FLOW EXTENDED WELL INTO THE 
TROPICS AND WAS DISPLACING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF A WEAK 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
13N133W. THESE STRONG SW WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. 

FURTHER E...ANOTHER SHEARED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CONUS 
SWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL. 
THIS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WHICH IS 
SHREDDING TROPICAL STORM PAUL AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND IS ALSO 
PULLING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS NE TOWARDS NRN MEXICO AND THE 
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS OF THE CONUS. 

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO SW TO NEAR 
10N110W. THE ITCZ HAS PROTRUDED N OF 10N NEAR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N101W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
ATTEMPTING TO BAND AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE WITH SOME SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
THE MOST RECENT GAP WIND EVENT HAS ENDED OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. 

$$
COBB