000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED OCT 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.1N 110.5W OR ABOUT 
130 NM ...210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND 
ABOUT 300 NM...480 KM...WEST SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AT 
25/0300 UTC MOVING NNE AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE 
DECREASED TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS 
RAPIDLY WEAKENING PAUL WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOTED AS SCATTERED 
STRONG NOW CLEARLY REMOVED TO WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM NE AND E FROM 
THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN NE AND BRUSH JUST 
SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24-30 HRS THEN 
MOVE INLAND THE WEST/CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AS A DISSIPATING 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HRS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 10N88W 14N95W 15N104W 14N110W 
10N115W 9N120W 10N130W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 9N 
BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF EL SALVADOR FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND 
107W.  SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 
130W... AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 129W AND 133W.   

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N120W AND
EXTENDS SW TO 27N128W AND W TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N134W AND CONTINUES SW TO 23N140W
WHERE IT IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE S. STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR N OF 18N AND E OF 129W TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA ALTHOUGH
THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A BROKEN FIELD OF 
STRATOCUMULUS NW OF A LINE FROM 29N116W 21N130W TO 19N140W. THE 
UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. ANOTHER MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
FORM NEAR 26N130W WITHIN 24-36 HRS. THIS SAME TROUGH IS 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAMPERING TROPICAL 
STORM PAUL AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND IS ALSO PULLING WIDESPREAD 
CLOUDINESS NE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS 
WHICH BROKE OFF FROM PAUL AND HAS QUICKLY MOVED NE...AND IS 
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 20N-24N EAST OF 110W TO ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COAST...INCLUDING THE SEA OF CORTEZ.

FARTHER S...A WEAK 1006 MB LOW IS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 13N133W. IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT 
IS UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CREATING SHEAR ALOFT.

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO SW TO NEAR 10N110W. THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO STEER
PAUL NORTH AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE ITCZ HAS PROTRUDED N OF 10N 
NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 14N99W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE 
UNDER ITCZ. A WEAK GAP WIND EVENT...WITH N-NE WINDS OF 20 
KT...IS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IS FORECAST TO END IN 
ABOUT 24 HRS.

$$
FORMOSA