000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 111.3W OR ABOUT 
200 NM ...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND 
ABOUT 375 NM...600 KM...WEST SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AT 
24/2100 UTC MOVING NNE AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE 
DECREASED TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS 
RAPIDLY WEAKENING PAUL WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOTED AS SCATTERED 
STRONG NOW CLEARLY REMOVED TO WITHIN ABOUT 90-100 NM NE AND E 
FROM THE CENTER. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN NE AND BRUSH JUST SOUTH 
OF THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS THEN MOVE 
INLAND THE WEST/CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AS A DISSIPATING 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HRS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 12N90W 14N100W 16N105W 10N116W 
9N120W 12N134W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W... FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 121W 
AND 130W... AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 133W AND 137W.  


...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N120W AND
EXTENDS SW TO 27N128W AND W TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N134W AND CONTINUES SW TO 23N140W
WHERE IT IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE S. STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR N OF 18N AND E OF 129W TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA ALTHOUGH
THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A BROKEN FIELD OF 
STRATOCUMULUS NW OF A LINE FROM 29N116W 21N130W TO 19N140W. THE 
UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. ANOTHER MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
FORM NEAR 26N130W WITHIN 24-36 HRS. THIS SAME TROUGH IS 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAMPERING TROPICAL 
STORM PAUL AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND IS ALSO PULLING WIDESPREAD 
CLOUDINESS NE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS 
WHICH BROKE OFF FROM PAUL AND HAS QUICKLY MOVED NE...AND IS 
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 20N-24N EAST OF 110W TO ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COAST...INCLUDING THE SEA OF CORTEZ.

FARTHER S...A WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 13N134W. IT
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 12N137W AS 1009 MB LOW IN 24 HRS...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT
IS UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CREATING SHEAR 
ALOFT.

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO SW TO NEAR 10N110W. THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO STEER
PAUL NORTH AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE ITCZ HAS PROTRUDED N OF 10N 
NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 16N98W TO 10N100W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. A WEAK GAP WIND EVENT...WITH N-NE 
WINDS OF 20 KT...IS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IS FORECAST 
TO END IN ABOUT 36 HRS.

$$
FORMOSA