000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241618 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE PAUL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM PAUL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 112.0W OR ABOUT 330 NM ...540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 480 NM...800 KM...WEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AT 24/1500 UTC MOVING N AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING PAUL WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOTED AS SCATTERED STRONG NOW CLEARLY REMOVED TO WITHIN ABOUT 90-100 NM NE AND E FROM THE CENTER. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THIS MORNING WHERE SHOWING EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN NE AND BRUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS THEN MOVE INLAND THE WEST/CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AS A DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HRS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 12N90W 13N100W 10N110W 10N120W 12N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 96W-101W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 4N-7N E OF 80W. ...DISCUSSION... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N120W AND EXTENDS SW TO 27N128W AND W TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N134W AND CONTINUES SW TO 23N140W WHERE IT IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE S. STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 18N AND E OF 129W TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA ALTHOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A BROKEN FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS NW OF A LINE FROM 29N116W 21N130W TO 19N140W. THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR 26N130W WITHIN 24-36 HRS. THIS SAME TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAMPERING TROPICAL STORM PAUL AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND IS ALSO PULLING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS NE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WHICH BROKE OFF FROM PAUL AND HAS QUICKLY MOVED NE...AND IS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 20N-24N EAST OF 110W TO ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST...INCLUDING THE SEA OF CORTEZ. FARTHER S...A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 13N135W. IT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 12N137W AS 1009 MB LOW IN 24 HRS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT IS UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CREATING SHEAR ALOFT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO SW TO NEAR 10N110W. THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO STEER PAUL NORTH AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE ITCZ HAS PROTRUDED N OF 10N NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N96W TO 10N100W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. A WEAK GAP WIND EVENT...WITH N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT...IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 6 HRS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND END IN ABOUT 36 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE