000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240901
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE OCT 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6N 111.4W OR ABOUT 275 NM 
...505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 
395 NM...730 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO AT 24/0900 UTC 
MOVING N AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
982 MB. SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO RIP AT PAUL WITH THE MOST 
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A BURST OF DEEP 
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND A BAND OF DEEP 
CONVECTION ABOUT 175 NM NE OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION THE SW 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM IS NEARLY VOID OF CONVECTIVE CIRRUS 
AS MOST OF THE DEBRIS IS BLOWING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 
SYSTEM. DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE CONVECTION REMAINS 
RATHER STRONG WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM IN THE NE
QUADRANT AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N84W 13N95W 7N117W 13N135W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST 
OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N TO 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 126W...AND BETWEEN 
130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 102W AND 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH 
THE MAIN AXIS ALONG 30N122W 17N127W. THE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH HAS NOW OPENED UP W OF SAN 
DIEGO...BUT THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE IS STILL CLOSED NEAR 28N122W. 
STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING 
SUBSIDENCE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 116W AND 127W ALTHOUGH THERE IS 
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A BROKEN FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS NW 
OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 20N140W. THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES 
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE...AND A 
SECOND MID/UPPER LOW CUTS OFF NEAR 26N130W WITHIN 36-48 HRS. THE 
TROUGH IS PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS NWD 
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE 
PAUL. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THERE ARE SOME 
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA IN THE VICINITY 
OF LA PAZ...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE SEA
OF CORTEZ. 

FARTHER S...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
13N135W ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. IN 
ADDITION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE PRODUCING A HOSTILE 
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS 
POINT.

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO SW TO NEAR 10N110W...AND IS HELPING TO PUSH PAUL SLOWLY N 
TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER FLOW S OF THE RIDGE REMAINS 
NE/EASTERLY...ESPECIALLY S OF 10N. THE ITCZ HAS PROTRUDED N OF 
10N NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THERE APPEARS TO BE AN 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N96W ACCORDING TO 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS AREA MAY BE RECEIVING ADDED 
SPIN FROM A WEAK GAP WIND EVENT CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG 
COASTAL AREAS FROM GUATEMALA TO NRN COSTA RICA...AND A FEW OF 
THESE COULD HAVE BEEN MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS 
SINCE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NLY.

$$
COBB