000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232124
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 111.6W OR ABOUT 385 NM SSW 
OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 23/2100 UTC MOVING N AT 4 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. PAUL HAS 
LOST ITS WELL-DEFINED EYE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...POSSIBLY 
AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL STRONGER S/SWLY SHEAR FROM AN UPPER TROUGH 
TO ITS NW. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY ON THE S SIDE 
OF THE HURRICANE NO LONGER FLARING TO THE S OR SW. CONVECTION 
REMAINS RATHER STRONG WITH A CONVECTIVE BURST WITH CLOUD TOPS AS 
COLD AS -80C NEAR THE EMBEDDED CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N85W 13N95W 7N117W 13N135W 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 91W-110W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 118W-126W...AND W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH 
THE MAIN AXIS ALONG 30N124W 17N128W. THE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH HAS NOW OPENED UP W OF SAN 
DIEGO...BUT THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE IS STILL CLOSED NEAR 28N124W. 
STRONG CONFLUENCE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING 
SUBSIDENCE FROM 16N-27N W OF 116W ALTHOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A BROKEN FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS NW OF A 
LINE FROM 30N123W TO 20N140W. THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE...AND A SECOND 
MID/UPPER LOW CUTS OFF NEAR 26N130W WITHIN 36-48 HRS. THE TROUGH 
IS PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS NWD ACROSS 
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE 
PAUL...AND RADAR FROM THE SW U.S. INDICATES THAT THERE ARE SOME 
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY N OF GUAYMAS AND ROSARITO.

FARTHER S...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
13N135W ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. IN 
ADDITION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE PRODUCING A HOSTILE 
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS 
POINT.

A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO SW TO NEAR 10N110W...AND IS HELPING TO PUSH PAUL SLOWLY N 
TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER FLOW S OF THE RIDGE REMAINS 
NE/EASTERLY...ESPECIALLY S OF 10N. THE ITCZ HAS PROTRUDED N OF 
10N NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A 
STRUNG-OUT CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N95W ACCORDING TO 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THIS AREA MAY BE 
RECEIVING ADDED SPIN FROM A WEAK GAP WIND EVENT CURRENTLY 
ONGOING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS 
HAVE POPPED UP ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM GUATEMALA TO NRN COSTA 
RICA...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 
FEW HOURS SINCE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NLY.

$$
BERG