000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231612
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1500 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 111.4W OR ABOUT 455 
NM...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT
23/1500 UTC MOVING NNW AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE 
INCREASED TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. THIS MAKES PAUL A STRONG CATEGORY 
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. PAUL SHOWS A WELL 
DEVELOPED EYE THIS MORNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH VERY COLD 
CLOUD TOP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE. IT IS A FAIRLY 
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING UP TO 
60 NM FROM THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N85W 10N97W 13N108W 11N117W 
9N124W 13N135W 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 150 NM S OF AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM NEAR 29N123W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 
18N134W. UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING 
STABLE AIRMASS GENERALLY N OF 14N AND W OF 118W. AT THE 
SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE GENERALLY N OF 25N 
W OF 125W...ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. 

SWLY UPPER FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO 
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE THE ITCZ W OF 135W. A WEAK SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EVIDENT ON MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY IN 
THIS AREA NEAR 12N136W. 

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH MEXICO TO AROUND 111W. DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ASSISTING 
DEVELOPMENT OF HURRICANE PAUL. HOWEVER...PAUL WILL ENCOUNTER 
INCREASING SW SHEAR AS IT RECURVES N TO NE AROUND THE RIDGE 
AXIS. FURTHER E...UPPER DIVERGENCE W OF AN UPPER LOW N OF 
HONDURAS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. 

AS FOR WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL 
INCREASE GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AREA STARTING LATE 
TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING WEDNESDAY. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN