000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 111.5W OR ABOUT 415 
NM...765 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT
23/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE 
INCREASED TO 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. THIS MAKES PAUL A CATEGORY TWO 
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN INTERMITTENT EYE 
FEATURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER 
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP CONVECTION 
SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO 
SUGGEST PAUL HAS A BENEFICIAL OUTFLOW JET EXTENDING NWD TOWARDS 
THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND OUTFLOW IS ALSO FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TO 
THE S OF THE HURRICANE AS WELL. IT IS A FAIRLY COMPACT SYSTEM 
WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING UP TO 60-75 
NM FROM THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W 10N96W 10N110W 8N117W 11N137W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 109W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 29N125W WITH TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING SSW TO 18N129W. THE 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER STABLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING NE 
ON MON...ONLY TO BE REPLACED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER 
THE AREA WITHIN 48 HRS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN OVER 
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA USHERING IN NE WINDS 
OF 20 KT AND A BROKEN/OVERCAST DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS. 
OTHERWISE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY DRY N OF 18N W OF 110W. 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE REGION 
SURROUNDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE 
PAUL...AND THIS COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER 
NW MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED NE/SW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...AND UPPER LEVEL 
NE/EASTERLIES EXTEND S OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN/MEXICAN COAST TO 
THE EQUATOR. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED OVER THE FAR 
E PACIFIC WATERS...AND THE CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING ALONG 
THE ITCZ IS LIMITED WITH NO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. HOWEVER... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE PACIFIC SW OF EL 
SALVADOR AND EXTENDING NWD TO NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

GAP WINDS...
GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO 20 KT LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...AND SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 25 KT WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHEN THE FRONT REACHES THE ISTHMUS. 

$$
COBB