000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230307
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON OCT 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 111.1W OR ABOUT 430 NM S 
OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 23/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 4 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. PAUL 
BEGAN SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY AT 2300 UTC AND 
SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BEEN WARMING AND THE SURROUNDING 
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW 
THE EYE BECOMING PARTLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS FROM A LARGE 
CONVECTIVE BURST IN THE NRN EYEWALL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SUGGESTS THAT PAUL HAS A BENEFICIAL OUTFLOW JET EXTENDING N 
TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND OUTFLOW IS ALSO FAIRLY 
SIGNIFICANT TO THE S. IT IS A FAIRLY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH 
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM AWAY 
FROM THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N85W 14N96W 7N115W 13N135W 
11N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W-109W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 7N-12N W 
OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 30N125W WITH TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING SSW TO 18N130W. THE 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT FOR 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING NE 
ON MON...ONLY TO BE REPLACED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER 
THE AREA WITHIN 48 HRS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED SWD 
ALONG 30N125W 24N138W FOLLOWED BY A BROKEN/OVERCAST DECK OF 
STRATOCUMULUS. OTHERWISE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY DRY N OF 
17N W OF 112W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NWD 
ACROSS THE REGION SURROUNDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ADVANCE 
OF HURRICANE PAUL...AND THIS COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED NE/SW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...AND UPPER LEVEL 
NE/EASTERLIES EXTEND S OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN/MEXICAN COAST TO 
THE EQUATOR. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED OVER THE FAR 
E PACIFIC WATERS...AND THE CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING ALONG 
THE ITCZ IS A BIT THIN WITH NO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM NRN COSTA RICA TO SE 
MEXICO NEAR THICKEST MOISTURE BELT...AND CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARED 
A BIT OVER PANAMA AND SRN COSTA RICA WITH THE ITCZ HAVING LIFTED 
N. GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 20 KT BY MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 25 KT BY 
MON NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT REACHES THE ISTHMUS.

$$
BERG