000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222114
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 110.7W OR ABOUT 440 
NM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT 22/2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. PAUL HAS 
BEEN STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY AND NOW HAS A DIMPLE EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...POSSIBLE THE MAKINGS OF A 
BANDING TYPE EYE. THERE IS ALSO ONE PROMINENT SPIRAL BAND THAT 
EXTENDS AT LEAST ONE REVOLUTION AROUND THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. PAUL 
IS ENTERING A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE 
OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO ITS 
NW...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN NWD TOWARDS 
THE BAJA PENINSULA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N85W 14N96W 8N118W 12N135W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 89W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 104W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 30N125W WITH TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING SW TO 18N132W. THE 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT FOR 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE UPPER LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING 
NE...ONLY TO BE REPLACED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE 
AREA WITHIN 48 HRS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED SWD ALONG 
30N125W 25N136W FOLLOWED BY A BROKEN/OVERCAST DECK OF 
STRATOCUMULUS. OTHERWISE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY DRY N OF 
17N W OF 112W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NWD 
ACROSS THE REGION SURROUNDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ADVANCE 
OF T.S. PAUL...AND THIS COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NW MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED NE/SW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...AND UPPER LEVEL 
NE/EASTERLIES EXTEND S OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN/MEXICAN COAST TO 
THE EQUATOR. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED OVER THE FAR 
E PACIFIC WATERS...AND THE CONVECTION THAT IS OCCURRING ALONG 
THE ITCZ IS A BIT THIN WITH NO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM NRN COSTA RICA TO SE 
MEXICO NEAR THICKEST MOISTURE BELT...AND CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARED 
A BIT OVER PANAMA AND SRN COSTA RICA WITH THE ITCZ HAVING LIFTED 
N. GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE TO 20 KT BY MON MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 25 KT BY 
MON NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT REACHES THE ISTHMUS.

$$
BERG