000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 109.1W OR ABOUT 400 
NM SW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO AT 22/1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 6 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. TROPICAL STORM 
PAUL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND 
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR. PAUL IS STARTING 
ITS EXPECTED TURN TO THE N AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE AS IT VEERS 
FROM W TO NW. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
DISCONTINUOUS AXIS 11N86W 
18N102W. AXIS CONTINUES 9N108W 7N114W 11N137W 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 96W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...TO NEAR 16N135W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH GENERALLY N OF 19N. AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO ALONG 18N TO 110W...ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER TROPICAL STORM PAUL. SELY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN 
THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR AN TURN EVENTUAL TO 
THE NE OF THIS SYSTEM. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH IS ALSO ASSISTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 135W. 
FURTHER E...MODERATE TO FRESH SWLY CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW E OF 
130W IS PROVIDING DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ 
OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. MEANWHILE...TO THE N...A COLD 
FRONT IS EMERGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND 
THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW GAP WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM LATE 
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN