000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 108.9W OR ABOUT 330 NM SW 
OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO AT 22/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. PAUL IS EXPERIENCING SOME VERTICAL 
SHEAR AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC IN BURSTS WITHIN A CENTRAL 
DENSE OVERCAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
DISCONTINUOUS AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 17N102W. AXIS CONTINUES 10N107W 
7N114W 11N132W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 8N135W.

...DISCUSSION...
CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 
29N125W BUT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY NE AS A WEAK UPPER JET 
DEVELOPS ON ITS SE PERIPHERY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ALOFT 
OVER THE ADJACENT REGION. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED N OF 15N 
W OF 113W ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THE MID/UPPER LOW HAS 
WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 30N125W 27N138W...FOLLOWED BY A BROKEN FIELD 
OF MARINE STRATOCUMULUS.

OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT EASTERLIES EXTENDING 
N OF 10N INTO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. T.S. PAUL HAS JUST ABOUT 
REACHED THE NOSE OF A RIDGE AXIS WHICH PROTRUDES W FROM MEXICO TO 
NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND...AND THE RESULTANT SHEAR HAS RELAXED A LITTLE 
TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SOMEWHAT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE 
FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HRS BEFORE PAUL BECOMES TRAPPED IN SWLY FLOW AHEAD 
OF THE CUT-OFF LOW NOTED ABOVE. NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS S OF 10N OVER 
THE FAR E PACIFIC ARE CREATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT...AND KEEPING 
THE ITCZ FAIRLY ACTIVE JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
MUNDELL