000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 108.0W OR ABOUT 275 
NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING W 6 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. BASED ON DATA FROM RECENT 
MICROWAVE PASSES...IT APPEARS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS 
LIGHTENING UP OVER PAUL AND THE CENTER HAS BECOME EMBEDDED 
BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED AROUND THE E SIDE 
OF THE CENTER...WITH A FEEBLE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE W. 
STILL...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A NON-SYMMETRICAL AND 
SOMEWHAT RAGGED STRUCTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N86W 16N100W 8N110W 12N125W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
87W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 99W-107W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS PLANTED W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST NEAR 29N125W BUT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY NE AS A WEAK 
UPPER JET DEVELOPS ON ITS SE PERIPHERY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE 
MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE ADJACENT REGION...WITH MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE NOTED N OF 15N W OF 113W AND ALSO EXTENDING ACROSS 
NRN MEXICO. THE MID/UPPER LOW HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 
30N125W 27N138W AND FOLLOWED BY A BROKEN FIELD OF MARINE 
STRATOCUMULUS.

OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC...A LARGE AND EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT 
EASTERLIES EXTENDING N OF 10N INTO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
T.S. PAUL HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS...WHICH PROTRUDES W FROM MEXICO TO NEAR SOCORRO 
ISLAND...AND THE RESULTANT SHEAR HAS RELAXED A LITTLE TO ALLOW 
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 
24-48 HRS BEFORE PAUL BECOMES TRAPPED IN SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
CUT-OFF LOW NOTED ABOVE. NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS LIE S OF 10N 
OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC AND ARE LEADING TO A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT...AND KEEPING THE ITCZ RATHER ACTIVE ESPECIALLY JUST 
OFFSHORE THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
BERG