000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 107.4W OR ABOUT 245 
NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING W 6 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. PAUL CONTINUES TO 
EXPERIENCE SOME EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME MORE OBSCURED BY THE CENTRAL 
DENSE OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ONE PRIMARY SPIRAL BAND 
EXTENDING AROUND THE W AND NW SIDE OF THE CDO...BOTH OF WHICH 
APPEAR TO BE BECOMING SOMEWHAT DETACHED FROM EACH OTHER. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 107W-109W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE IN A SPIRAL BAND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 
107W-112W MOVING NW TOWARDS SOCORRO ISLAND. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N86W 16N100W 8N110W 12N125W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 86W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 
100W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...

CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS PLANTED W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
COAST NEAR 29N125W BUT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING SLOWLY NE AS A WEAK 
UPPER JET DEVELOPS ON ITS SE PERIPHERY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE 
MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE ADJACENT REGION...WITH MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE NOTED N OF 15N W OF 112W AND ALSO EXTENDING ACROSS 
NRN MEXICO. THE MID/UPPER LOW HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 
30N125W 28N138W AND FOLLOWED BY A BROKEN FIELD OF MARINE 
STRATOCUMULUS.

OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC...A LARGE AND EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT 
EASTERLIES EXTENDING N OF 10N INTO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
T.S. PAUL HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS...WHICH PROTRUDES W FROM MEXICO TO NEAR SOCORRO 
ISLAND...AND THE RESULTANT SHEAR HAS RELAXED A LITTLE TO ALLOW 
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 
24-48 HRS BEFORE PAUL BECOMES TRAPPED IN SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
CUT-OFF LOW NOTED ABOVE. NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS LIES S OF 10N 
OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC AND ARE LEADING TO A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT...AND KEEPING THE ITCZ RATHER ACTIVE ESPECIALLY JUST 
OFFSHORE THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
BERG