000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM PAUL HAS FORMED NEAR 16.0N 106.9W OR ABOUT 230 NM 
SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING W 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STARTING TO BECOME EXPOSED ON THE 
EAST SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL IS EXPERIENCING MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR. 
CONVECTION IS BUILDING AS DEPICTED BY IR SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWING CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE 
TO FORM TO THE NW-N WRAPPING INTO THE MID LEVEL CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 15N TO 
19N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W.

...ITCZ...
DISCONTINUOUS AXIS 12N87W 15N95W. AXIS CONTINUES 8N101W 8N113W 
10N126W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS ALONG CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 
118W...AND WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO EXTENDS W GENERALLY ALONG 22W TO S OF BAJA PENINSULA. A 
WEAK UPPER LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ITCZ 
NEAR 9N100W. ELY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IS PROVIDING THE 
SHEAR AFFECTING TROPICAL STORM PAUL. SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR PAUL 
ARE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING AS THE STORM DEEPENS...WITH 35 KTS 
REPORTED JUST S OF THE CENTER AND 20 KT OFF SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA. MODERATE TO FRESH SW SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS FROM EQUATOR TO 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. RESULTANT CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE COAST 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 8 TO 10 FT SW SWELL 
PERSISTS FROM THE S PACIFIC. LOOKING AHEAD...THE ONLY OTHER 
FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A STRONG 
COLD FRONT BY TUE. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA LATE MON AND TUE.

W OF 110W...CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N132W WITH 
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGGING S ALONG WRN PERIPHERY. DEEP LAYER 
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR GENERALLY N OF 15N. SURFACE RIDGE IS CENTERED 
N OF THE AREA...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WITH UP TO 9 FT 
SWELL ON ITS PERIPHERY...GENERALLY N OF 20N W OF 130W AS 
EVIDENCED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR 31N140W.  FURTHER S...UPPER 
LEVEL SWLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION W OF 137W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN