000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E HAS FORMED NEAR 15.5N 105.9W OR 
ABOUT 240 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING W 10 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY 
SHEAR AS IS INDICATED IN THE SHARP EDGE ON THE E SIDE OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING BENEATH 
THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SOME BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 105W-109W.

...ITCZ...
DISCONTINUOUS AXIS 10N85W 15N95W. AXIS CONTINUES 9N102W 8N107W 
12N127W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS ALONG CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE N PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 26N126W AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HRS. A BROAD SWATH OF DRY AIR EXTENDS UP TO 600-700 NM 
S/SW OF THE LOW AND THEN TURNS NEWD TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE 
LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND SKIES ARE 
GENERALLY CLEAR N OF 23N E OF 123W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 10N120W TO 8N140W OVER THE ITCZ. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING SOME MINOR CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS W OF 130W.

FARTHER E...THE UPPER FLOW IS EASTERLY AND DOMINATED BY A STRONG 
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. AN INVERTED UPPER 
TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 98W IS MOVING SLOWLY W IN THE EMBEDDED FLOW. AN 
AXIS OF MOISTURE EXTENDS NNE OF THE TROUGH AND IS ALLOWING SCATTERED 
TSTMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 
COSTA RICA AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17-E.

$$
MUNDELL